韓第爺爺的 Davy's Bar 故事

The Wicklow Mountains lie just outside Dublin, Ireland. It is an area of wild beauty, a place to which, as an Irishman born there, I return as often as I can. It is still a bare and lonely spot, with unmarked roads, and I still get lost. Once I stopped and asked the way. “Sure, it’s easy,” a local replied, “just keep going the way you are, straight ahead, and after a while you will cross a small bridge with Davy’s Bar on the far side. You can’t miss it!” “Yes, I’ve got that,” I said. “Straight on to Davy’s Bar.” “That’s right. Well, half a mile before you get there, turn to your right up the hill.”His directions seemed so logical that I thanked him and drove off. By the time I realized that the logic made no sense he had disappeared. As I made my way down to Davy’s Bar, wondering which of the roads to the right to take, I reflected that he had just given me a vivid example of paradox, perhaps even the paradox of our times: by the time you know where you ought to go, it’s too late to go there, or, more dramatically, if you keep on going the way you are, you will miss the road to the future.….. The world keeps changing. It is one of the paradoxes of success that the things and the ways which got you where you are are seldom those that keep you there. If you think they are, and that you know the way to the future because it is a continuation of where you’ve come from, you may well end up in Davy’s Bar, with nothing left but a chance to drown your sorrows and reminisce about the past (pp 49-50, emphasis added).

S 曲線

• 你的一生，每個人的一生，甚至企業的或學校或政黨、甚至國家的一生，在真正開展之前，都必須先投入更多在教育、實驗或投資上。
• S 曲線會先往下走，然後再往上走。雖然你我都希望就一直往上走，ＢＵＴ他仍然是一條Ｓ曲線，你的人生或組織的壽命終究會觸頂，開始走下坡。

我們也可以在第一個Ｓ曲線終止前展開新的曲線，然後在哪個曲線終止前，又啟動另一個曲線。

但新的曲線仍是一條Ｓ曲線，需要新的教育、新的投資、新的試驗，才能成長。

一旦啟動曲線，而且曲線已經脫離最初的谷底，那麼在第一個彎道攀上頂峰前，最好就啟動新曲線。因為當所有的一切都走下坡時，很難重新出發。（跟跑步一樣！ 一停下來就，再啟動就很辛苦～～～～

你必須趁還在爬坡、還看得到第一條曲線的盡頭時，就找到下一條曲線。大多數人都沒辦法集中意志，改變方向，等到看到看見牆上的大字，往往為時已晚，精力與資源都已經耗盡。

從第一條曲線開始安排第二曲線

從心理學角度來看，一個人很難在派對達到高潮、正盡情享受時，掉頭離開。
因此你需要向外求援。局外人比較容易看出到了哪個時間點需要展開新曲線。（ 讓我想到 ted talks 的每個人需要一個 Coach!)

在個人層次，做相同的工作太久之後，許多人會發現很難離開新的職業生涯。

注意一些警訊

• 自滿

  • 當你開始感覺一切都在控制中，無論發生什麼事，都有辦法應付時，就要小心了，可能你對未來太過篤定，以為一切順利。自信是好事，ＢＵＴ，不會惶惶不安，很危險。

• 缺乏好奇心

不體驗是浪費人生

• 開始做夢、勇敢做夢（side project!
• 假如你知道自己要的是什麼，你就應該開始想方設法，經常創造一些可能的機會，不管是和相關人士見面、閱讀相關文件、參加研討會。
• 切記開闢新曲線耗費的成本會大於產出。
• 準備起跳時，最好為過渡其準備一筆儲備金。

人生漫長，至少有時間度過三個人生。 （三條Ｓ！

Reference

• 你是誰，比你做什麼更重要：英國管理大師韓第寫給你的21封信 - 第十三封信
• The Road To Davy's Bar